Bing Crosby sang about his dream of a white Christmas, and his suggestion that snow is the secret to a magical day prompts millions of Americans to check the weather reports.

It’s still too early for meteorologists to provide an accurate forecast for which areas will wake up to a winter wonderland on Christmas morning, but it’s possible to make an educated guess.

Experts have decades’ worth of data, which can be used to calculate each state’s chances of seeing snow. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has worked out the historic probability of having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25 and compiled those results into a map of the contiguous U.S.

The states shaded gray show the regions where the probability of snow stands at less than 10 percent. So the southern states and those on the West Coast have little chance of needing to accessorize their Christmas outfits with snow boots.

snow probability map
This color-coded map shows the probability of a white Christmas across the country, with the areas in white the most likely to wake up to snow on Christmas morning.
This color-coded map shows the probability of a white Christmas across the country, with the areas in white the most likely to wake up to snow on Christmas morning.
NOAA

But the map shows that Americans living in the North and those at higher elevations are the most likely to see snow on Christmas morning.

Alaska, Minnesota, Maine, Idaho and upstate New York could see snow, while the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, as will the Rockies and Sierra Nevadas, might be blanketed.

Despite pretty snowy scenes featured in movies and Christmas cards, not everyone welcomes it. It can create treacherous driving conditions with white-outs and slippery roads, while heavy snow can snap off tree branches and down power lines. Blizzards can prevent planes from taking off and snow accumulation can affect the running of trains. In January, several people froze to death as dangerous arctic conditions hit the U.S.

Some experts believe that climate change will make snowfall on Christmas Day increasingly rare, although others are more hesitant about drawing conclusions. About 47 percent of the contiguous 48 states had snow on the ground on December 25 from 1981 to 1990, with an average of 3.5 inches. From 2011 to 2020, that area was reduced to about 38 percent, with an average of 2.7 inches of snow on the ground, according to a review of 40 years of federal weather data by The Associated Press.

Newsweek has reached out to NOAA by email for comment on Monday.